Predictive models for flexible pavement fatigue cracking based on machine learning

Abstract

Pavement performance prediction is crucial for ensuring the longevity and safety of road networks. In our extensive study, we employ a diverse array of techniques to enhance fatigue performance models in flexible pavements. The methodology begins with Random Forest feature selection, identifying the top 15 critical variables that significantly impact pavement performance. These variables form the basis for subsequent model development. Our investigation into model performance indicates the superiority of advanced machine learning methods such as Regression Trees (RT), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Ensemble Trees (ET), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) over traditional linear regression methods. This consistent outperformance underscores their potential to reshape forecasting accuracy. Through extensive model optimization, we reveal robust performance across both complete and selected feature sets, emphasizing the importance of meticulous feature selection in enhancing forecast accuracy. The accuracy of our best optimized machine learning model is highlighted by its Performance Measurement metrics: RMSE of 22.416, MSE of 502.46, R-squared of 0.80848, and MAE of 8.9958. Additionally, comparative analysis with previous empirical models demonstrates that our best optimized machine learning model outperforms existing empirical models. This work underscores the significance of feature curation in pavement performance prediction, highlighting the potential of sophisticated modeling methodologies. Embracing cutting-edge technologies facilitates data-driven decisions, ultimately contributing to the development of more robust road networks, enhancing safety, and prolonging lifespan.