Precision Planning for Optimum Production: A Hybrid Geospatial–MCDM Model for Agricultural Suitability

Abstract

Selecting suitable agricultural land is critical for food security and sustainable development, particularly in arid regions facing resource scarcity and environmental degradation. This study assesses agricultural land suitability in Sohag governorate, Egypt, using a hybrid Geographic Information System (GIS), Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and geostatistical approach. Thirty-four representative soil profiles were morphologically described and analyzed for ten physical (slope, depth, erosion, texture, stoniness, drainage) and chemical (EC, pH, CaCO3, organic matter) criteria, weighted using both the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and FAHP. Geostatistical analysis characterized the spatial variability in soil properties across the study area. The two suitability maps were validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Kappa statistics: the FAHP achieved higher prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.83, Kappa = 0.91) than the AHP (AUC = 0.81, Kappa = 0.88). The AHP-based map classified 40% (1154.92 km2) as moderately suitable (S2), 33% (952.81 km2) as marginally suitable (S3), and 27% (779.57 km2) as unsuitable (N); the FAHP-based map classified 42% (1212.67 km2) as S2, 30% (866.19 km2) as S3, and 28% (808.44 km2) as N. The proposed framework may serve as a reference for similar arid environments and support progress toward Sustainable Development Goals 2, 6, 8, 9, 11, 13 and 15, conditional on local soil, water, climate and management conditions.