Pneumonia and COVID-19 co-infection modeling with optimal control analysis

Abstract

In this study, we present a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for co-infection of pneumonia and COVID-19 transmission dynamics. To understand the dynamics of the co-infection of COVID-19 and pneumonia sickness, we developed and examined a compartmental based ordinary differential equation type mathematical model. Firstly, we showed the limited region and non-negativity of the solution, which demonstrate that the model is biologically relevant and mathematically well-posed. Secondly, the Jacobian matrix and the Lyapunov function are used to illustrate the local and global stability of the equilibrium locations. If the related reproduction numbers <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M1"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>c</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:math> , <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M2"><mml:msubsup><mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:math> , and <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="M3"><mml:msub><mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="script">R</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mn>0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:math> are smaller than unity, then pneumonia, COVID-19, and their co-infection have disease-free equilibrium points that are both locally and globally asymptotically stable otherwise the endemic equilibrium points are stable. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine how each parameter affects the spread or control of the illnesses. Moreover, we applied the optimal control theory to describe the optimal control model that incorporates four controls, namely, prevention of pneumonia, prevention of COVID-19, treatment of infected pneumonia and treatment of infected COVID-19. Then the Pontryagin's maximum principle is introduced to obtain the necessary condition for the optimal control problem. Finally, the numerical simulation of optimality system reveals that the combination of treatment and prevention is the most optimal to minimize the diseases.