review · Global Food Security
Africa faces rising wheat import bills, growing at nine percent annually due to dietary shifts and rapid urban population growth. Although wheat production has expanded across different regions over recent decades, it fails to keep pace with demand. Yield gap analyses reveal significant potential to boost continental wheat output by deploying improved genetics and refined agronomic practices. Raising yields on existing cropland alongside the carefully targeted expansion of rainfed and irrigated areas can narrow water-limited yield gaps and improve national self-sufficiency. In light of vulnerabilities exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and extreme weather, African agricultural policies must reconsider domestic staple crop production. Furthermore, expanding alternative domestic sources of calories and proteins offers an additional strategic pathway to curtail dependence on external wheat supplies and strengthen long-term food security across the continent.
Dependence on imported wheat leaves African nations vulnerable to external shocks such as global pandemics, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme weather. Closing the yield gap through better farming methods and crop genetics helps nations protect their food supplies, stabilise trade balances, and build resilient domestic food systems capable of feeding rapidly expanding urban populations without relying entirely on costly foreign imports.
The findings point towards commercial opportunities in deploying improved crop genetics, certified seeds, and agronomic inputs for sustainable intensification. Agribusinesses, seed distributors, and irrigation technology providers could target producers in both rainfed and irrigated wheat zones. Because the findings derive from yield gap analyses rather than product trials, real-world deployment remains at an applied stage, requiring field-level demonstration and distribution partnerships to reach farmers.
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A growing urban population and dietary changes increased wheat import bills in Africa to 9% per year. Though wheat production in the continent has been increasing over the past decades, to varying degrees depending on regions, this has not been commensurate with the rapidly increasing demand for wheat. Analyses of wheat yield gaps show that there is ample opportunity to increase wheat production in Africa through improved genetics and agronomic practices. Doing so would reduce import dependency and increase wheat self-sufficiency at national level in many African countries. In view of the uncertainties revealed by the global COVID-19 pandemic, extreme weather events, and world security issues, national policies in Africa should re-consider the value of self-sufficiency in production of staple food crops, specifically wheat. This is particularly so for areas where water-limited wheat yield gaps can be narrowed through intensification on existing cropland and judicious expansion of rainfed and irrigated wheat areas. Increasing the production of other sources of calories (and proteins) should also be considered to reduce dependency on wheat imports.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100684
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