Ordered probit results of determinants of climate change vulnerability across different agricultural enterprises in Kenya

Abstract

Climate change is significantly impacting small-scale farmers in Kenya, particularly those engaged in key agricultural enterprises; crop cultivation, livestock farming, and fish production. To design interventions and develop policies to address the challenges posed by climate change, it is important to gather evidence of the extent of household vulnerability and the related factors. This study assessed household vulnerability to climate change and identify contributing factors to guide effective interventions and policies. Using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index and ordered Probit regression model, data from 723 small-scale farmers were analyzed. The findings show that households relying solely on crop farming are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than those combining two or more types of agricultural activities. Households that engaged in multiple farming enterprises such as mixing crops with livestock or fish farming were better prepared to cope with climate-related challenges. Additionally, households headed by younger or more educated individuals, with access to agricultural training and extension services, accessing credit, having membership in farming groups, and located closer to markets were generally less vulnerable. Based on these findings, the study recommends i) implementation of interventions that promote multi-enterprise farming and synergies to enable farmers to diversify risks, (ii) introducing affordable credit options for farmer households, facilitated through policy and other initiatives such as cooperatives, as means to reduce household vulnerability to climate change, and (iii) strengthening government meteorological and extension services to ensure timely and efficient dissemination of climate change-related information to farmers, facilitating the adoption of adaptation measures.