Optimal Control Strategies for Dual-Strain SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics with Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates optimal intervention strategies for controlling the spread of two co-circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2 within the Nigerian population. A newly formulated epidemiological model captures the transmission dynamics of the dual-strain system and incorporates three key control mechanisms: vaccination, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and therapeutic treatment. To identify the most effective approach, Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is employed, enabling the derivation of an optimal control function that minimizes both infection rates and associated implementation costs. Through numerical simulations, this study evaluates the performance of individual, paired, and combined intervention strategies. Additionally, a cost-effectiveness assessment based on the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) framework highlights the most economically viable option, while results suggest that the combined application of vaccination and treatment strategies offers superior control over dual-strain transmission and implementing all three strategies together ensures the most robust suppression of the outbreak.