Modelling of the vulnerability indicators in flood-prone areas of Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study adopted the Structural Equation Modelling to validate the four constructs hypothesized in UNESCO-IHE’s framework not previously considered in previous modelling endeavours within the context of the flood-prone communities in Abeokuta, Nigeria. Relying on expert opinions, the study developed, screened and scoped the constructs, sub-constructs, and relevant indicators adopted during the field observation and survey. Questionnaire was used to collect relevant data from 380 households in 20 purposively selected communities. The structural model established that physical factor (β=1.222, p<0.05) and environmental factor (β=0.896, p<0.05) are pivotal constructs influencing flood vulnerability. Notably, with respect to the physical construct, topography, river discharge, and rainfall emerge as key exposure indicators (β=0.505, p<0.05), while dams and storage capacity, and evacuation routes are the crucial resilience indicators (β=0.993, p<0.05). Similarly, for the environmental construct, natural reservations and presence of green areas emerge as veritable susceptibility indicators (β=0.754, p<0.05), while access to meteorological data and environmental recovery turned out being the significant resilience indicators (β=0.953, p<0.05). The results of the modelling afford cost-effective prioritisation of specific measures that address the significant vulnerability factors as adaptation strategies that culminate in sustainable development. • This study used Structural Equation Modelling to assess flood vulnerability in Abeokuta, Nigeria. • Physical and Environmental Factors: Physical (β=1.222, p<0.05) and environmental (β=0.896, p<0.05) factors significantly influence flood vulnerability. • Key indicators, along the dimensions of exposure, resilience, and susceptibility, offer a basis for prioritizing specific measures to address significant vulnerability factors. • Findings inform adaptation strategies for sustainable development in flood-prone communities.