article · Scientific African
Breast cancer in Ghana is characterised by rising prevalence among younger women and high rates of aggressive forms such as triple-negative cancer. Using clinical and demographic data from 558 patients aged 13 to 97, an empirical model maps breast cancer progression across three distinct phases and two severity stages. An accelerated phase of mortality occurs between 4 and 32 months of follow-up, peaking at 19 months. A delayed phase follows from 32 to 70 months, displaying a staggered mortality pattern, while a latent phase captures non-cancer deaths beginning around age 57. The framework groups these into two main severity stages: an initial stage up to 58 months dominated by cancer progression, and a secondary stage beyond 58 months where competing mortality causes prevail. The model provides a mathematical proportionality factor to forecast survival and mortality trends.
Breast cancer in Ghana frequently affects younger women with aggressive subtypes. By defining exact time windows when mortality risks are highest, mathematical modeling helps healthcare planners and clinicians understand when patients are most vulnerable. This evidence-based timeline can inform timely interventions, guide follow-up care schedules, and support broader comparisons of cancer progression across different international populations.
The empirical model is early-stage research that could inform the development of clinical prognosis tools or healthcare analytics software for oncology teams and public health planners. While the mathematical relationships predict survival and mortality timeframes based on patient data, practical deployment would require software integration, clinical validation, and testing within health systems before it could be used as a routine decision-support product.
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Breast cancer (BC) is increasingly prevalent in Ghana, particularly among younger women, and is often characterized by aggressive molecular subtypes such as triple-negative BC. This study models the stages and phases of BC severity in Ghana using tumor characteristics and demographic data from 558 patients aged 13–97 years. The accelerated phase was found to occur between follow-up times t = 4 and t = 32 months, with the highest peak occurring at t = 19 months. This was followed by the delayed phase ( t = 32 to t = 70 months), marked by a staggered mortality trend. In the latent phase, a four-month delay was observed after death from other causes began at approximately age 57, reaching a maximum at age 75. The three phases were further divided into five zones, and analysis revealed two distinct stages of disease severity (SDSs): SDS1 (0–58 months), encompassing the accelerated and delayed phases, and SDS2 (>58 months), where deaths from causes other than BC dominated. An empirical model was formulated for these stages, with a proportionality factor that remained consistent in SDS1 but deviated in SDS2 due to competing risks. This factor enables the prediction of BC mortality and survival rates and could serve as a basis for international comparisons of disease prevalence and severity.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03612
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