Modeling Foot-and-Mouth Disease Dynamics Among Livestock and Wild Ruminants: Integrating Community Viral Load and Environmental Transmission Pathways

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly transmissible viral infection of livestock that threatens food security and causes substantial economic losses in endemic regions. Despite its economic impact, the role of environmental viral load and wildlife reservoirs in sustaining FMD transmission remains poorly quantified. The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which community viral load sustains FMD persistence and to identify key transmission drivers in a coupled livestock–wildlife–environment system. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infected (SEI) model with a free-living virus compartment was analyzed via the basic reproduction number (R0) and solved numerically using a Nonstandard Finite Difference Method. Sensitivity analysis identified wild host population size, transmission rates, host recruitment, environmental viral decay, and viral load thresholds as major determinants of R0. Results indicate that higher transmission rates accelerate susceptible depletion and increase exposed and infected classes, with wildlife dominating environmental viral contributions. Community viral load is central to sustaining outbreaks and informs targeted control strategies.