Modeling Climate Suitability for Triticum aestivum L. (Common Wheat) in Pakistan Using the MaxEnt Approach

Abstract

Pakistan ranks among the top ten nations globally that are likely to experience severe impacts from climate change and are facing critical food security challenges. Variability in temperature and rainfall alters the geographical suitability of land for crop cultivation. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to forecast the effects of climate change and evaluate land suitability for Triticum aestivum L. (common wheat) production in Pakistan, where it is a major staple crop. Bioclimatic variables and occurrence data for two climatic scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used for the year 2070. The prime factors affecting the Triticum aestivum L. distribution are temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, and mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The findings indicate an average decline in highly suitable and moderately suitable areas, whereas an increase is observed in the least suitable areas in future scenarios. The highly suitable area for future distribution accounts for 26.78% and 19.67% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, highlighting a negative effect on prospective wheat production in Pakistan. The outcome of this research is of utmost significance for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigation protocols to sustain wheat productivity under a changing climate.