Modeling and Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Change Using the Land Change Modeler in the Suluh River Basin, Northern Highlands of Ethiopia

Abstract

Land use and land cover change are among the drivers of environmental change. The Suluh River Basin’s land use and land cover are modeled in this study using a land change modeler. To accomplish the goals of this study, Landsat images and ancillary data sources were utilized. In eCognition Developer 9.2 software, nearest neighbor fuzzy classification was used to classify Landsat images. With the IDRISI Selva 17.3 software, change detection and modeling were carried out. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses of the data were conducted. The results showed that, despite a drop in forest land of 97.2%, grazing land of 89.8%, plantation land of 89.1%, shrub-bush land of 1.5%, and water bodies of 84.8% from 1990 to 2002, bare land increased by 10.6%, built-up land by 29.4%, and cultivated land by 65.4%. The model projects, bare, built-up, and cultivated land will increase at the cost of water bodies, grazing, forest, shrub-bush, and plantation land between the years 2028 and 2048. Rainfall, slope, height, distance to rivers, distance to highways, distance from towns, and population density were the main determinants of LULC change in the study area. Therefore, in order to promote sustainable development, safeguard the river basin, and lessen the severity of the changes, appropriate management and timely action must be taken by policymakers and decision makers.