Microfinance and Financial Inclusion: A Multilevel Analysis of Barriers Related to Repayment Delays According to Individual and Regional Profiles – The Case of Al Amana Microfinance

Abstract

This article examines the determinants of repayment delays in Moroccan microfinance using an original administrative database of 476,145 borrowers financed by Al Amana between 2010 and 2022. Combining count models and a multilevel approach, the analysis shows that repayment discipline results from a combination of individual, contractual and territorial factors. The findings indicate that women, older borrowers, more educated clients and borrowers with accumulated credit experience have significantly fewer arrears, while larger loan amounts, some marital profiles and agricultural activities increase the risk of delay. The multilevel model shows that 6.49% of the variance in arrears is explained by regional disparities: a high poverty rate increases repayment delays, whereas a high density of clients reduces them. The study highlights the need for a structural and contextualized understanding of credit risk.