Measuring gendered climate vulnerability in smallholder rice production: Evidence from a composite index approach in Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change poses a growing threat to agricultural productivity and food security in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Nigeria, where rice production is highly climate-sensitive and predominantly rain-fed. Drawing on Social Vulnerability Theory, this study conceptualizes climate vulnerability not merely as exposure to climatic hazards but as a function of underlying social, economic, and institutional inequalities that shape differential adaptive capacities among farmers. Specifically, gendered disparities in access to productive resources and services are central to understanding vulnerability outcomes. This study examines the differential vulnerability of male and female rice farmers in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Niger State, North Central Nigeria, using an integrated vulnerability framework. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to select 364 farmers, and data were collected through structured questionnaires alongside 30 years (1994–2023) of rainfall and temperature records from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics, a Climate Perception Index, and a composite Vulnerability Index based on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Findings reveal increasing temperature trends, erratic rainfall, and frequent climate shocks such as floods and prolonged dry spells. While both male and female farmers experience similar levels of exposure, women exhibit higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity, largely due to constrained land access and limited extension services, alongside disparities in income, education, and institutional support. Consequently, female farmers are more vulnerable, with higher vulnerability levels observed in the FCT compared to Niger State. The study concludes that climate vulnerability is socially differentiated and structurally embedded, underscoring the need for gender-responsive, context-specific adaptation policies that enhance equitable access to resources and institutional support systems.