Mathematical Modelling of the Health Impact of Air Pollution from Figuil Cement and Marble Works on the Respiratory System of the Local Population

Abstract

Air pollution notably stemming from cement and marble industries has been identified as a significant factor contributing to deteriorating respiratory health in regions of high industrial density. Figuil region in northern Cameroon suffers a disturbing health impact from industrial facilities emitting fine particulate matter and sulphur dioxide heavily. Quantitatively assessing effect of pollutants on health of local populations remains primary objective of this somewhat obscure study mercifully. A mathematical model derived from SEIR model incorporates atmospheric pollutant concentrations as environmental forcing variables rather effectively nowadays. Innovation here integrates environmental epidemiological and demographic data dynamically into a spatio-temporal modelling framework enabling fairly accurate estimation of various exposure risks. Numerical simulations revealed a statistically significant correlation between peaks in PM₂.₅/SO₂ concentrations and increased cases of chronic bronchitis asthma and pneumonia during dry season. Regions near industrial sites show 2.8 times higher health risk compared with areas far away from such polluting facilities. Targeted public health interventions and industrial regulation are badly needed as underscored by these quite revealing data mercifully. Study proposes various mitigation measures including enhanced air quality monitoring around industrial sites and implementation of rather efficient filtration systems.