Mathematical Modeling of Mosquito Population Dynamics using Constrained Threshold with Multi-Environmental Factors and Intervention Strategies

Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> This study presents a mathematical model framework to study the life growth stages of mosquitoes in tropical regions. The developed model integrated a constraint threshold to analyze mosquito population dynamics by explicitly incorporating multi-environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, NDVI, dump sites, and poor drainage. The model employs a system of ordinary differential equations to simulate mosquito life stages and breeding site dynamics under stochastic environmental variability. Monte Carlo simulations was employed to evaluate the effectiveness of four intervention strategies and their improvements against a predefined probability target. Sensitivity analysis identifies dump sites, humidity, rainfall and temperature as the most influential factors across mosquito life stages. Results show that combined environmental and chemical interventions yield the highest success probability in reducing mosquito populations below the threshold. This study provides a risk awareness decision making framework for malaria control, emphasizing the need for integrated strategies targeting both ecological and anthropogenic drivers of mosquito proliferation. The model was implemented using environmental data of Akure, Nigeria to demonstrates its utility for localized public health planning and adaptive intervention deployment in tropical urban settings. The findings suggest that intervention should be deployed to target reduction of malaria vector by eradicating mosquito breeding sites which are influenced by human activities.