Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Argania spinosa Crop Yield and Leaf Area Index: A Combined Drought Index Approach from Multisource Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

In this study, we explored the efficacy of random forest algorithms in downscaling CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) precipitation data to predict Argane stand traits. Nonparametric regression integrated original CHIRPS data with environmental variables, demonstrating enhanced accuracy aligned with ground rain gauge observations after residual correction. Furthermore, we explored the performance of range machine learning algorithms, encompassing XGBoost, GBDT, RF, DT, SVR, LR and ANN, in predicting the Leaf Area Index (LAI) and crop yield of Argane trees using condition index-based drought indices such as PCI, VCI, TCI and ETCI derived from multi-sensor satellites. The results demonstrated the superiority of XGBoost in estimating these parameters, with drought indices used as input. XGBoost-based crop yield achieved a higher R2 value of 0.94 and a lower RMSE of 6.25 kg/ha. Similarly, the XGBoost-based LAI model showed the highest level of accuracy, with an R2 of 0.62 and an RMSE of 0.67. The XGBoost model demonstrated superior performance in predicting the crop yield and LAI estimation of Argania sinosa, followed by GBDT, RF and ANN. Additionally, the study employed the Combined Drought Index (CDI) to monitor agricultural and meteorological drought over two decades, by combining four key parameters, PCI, VCI, TCI and ETCI, validating its accuracy through comparison with other drought indices. CDI exhibited positive correlations with VHI, SPI and crop yield, with a particularly strong and statistically significant correlation observed with VHI (r = 0.83). Therefore, CDI was recommended as an effective method and index for assessing and monitoring drought across Argane forest stands area. The findings demonstrated the potential of advanced machine learning models for improving precipitation data resolution and enhancing agricultural drought monitoring, contributing to better land and hydrological management.