<b>CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER SCARCITY, AND FARMER–HERDER RELATIONS: A HYDRO-CONFLICT PERSPECTIVE IN THE BENUE RIVER BASIN</b><i>.</i>

Abstract

This study employed a mixed-methods design, combining geospatial analysis, hydro-climatic datasets, and ethnographic inquiry to examine how climate change affects water access and livelihood systems along the Upper Benue corridor (from Dasin Hausa to Ibi, 471.8 km). Land Use and Land Cover analysis (1984–2024) revealed a 28.3% decline in surface water and a 35.7% reduction in riparian vegetation. Hydro-climatic records indicate a 15 per cent drop in annual rainfall, higher evaporation rates, and a later onset of the rainy season (Nigerian Meteorological Agency & Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency, 2024). Agricultural output fell by about 20 per cent, pastoral water points shifted an average of 40 meters from historical locations, and household fishing income declined sharply. Conflict data analysis recorded a positive correlation between rainfall variability and violent events (r = 0.67). Resource competition accounted for 68% of reported incidents between 2010 and 2024. Fieldwork included forty-five semi-structured interviews and nine focus group discussions. Respondents identified water scarcity as the dominant trigger of farmer-herder disputes, surpassing land-related claims. Using Hydro-political Ecology, Eco-violence Theory, and Environmental Security perspectives, the study finds that hydro-scarcity is shaped by both biophysical change and fragmented governance. It recommends a Benue Basin Resilience Compact focused on water governance reform, climate-smart production, and conflict-sensitive peacebuilding.