article · Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Long-term spatial-temporal rainfall trends and variability across Eastern and Southern Africa were assessed using the CHIRPS-v2 gridded dataset spanning 37 years from 1981 to 2017. When validated against 4,243 ground gauge observations, the data demonstrated satisfactory skill, strong temporal agreement, and accurate representation of total rainfall volumes and variability. Analysis of standardised annual anomalies identified areas prone to drought and flooding. Significant increases in annual rainfall occurred in Southwest Zambia and the Northern Lake Victoria Basin spanning Kenya and Uganda. In contrast, the sharpest decline in annual rainfall occurred at Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania, with additional decreases observed across Southwest Tanzania, Central-South Kenya, Central Uganda, and Western Rwanda. The validated high-resolution records offer reliable information to supplement sparse gauge networks in rain-fed agricultural areas.
Rainfall shifts directly govern drought, flood risks, and crop productivity in regions heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Because ground-based rain gauge networks in Eastern and Southern Africa are frequently sparse, validating high-resolution satellite-derived rainfall data provides environmental managers and policymakers with dependable evidence to plan and deploy targeted climate adaptation measures across critical sectors.
The validated dataset offers ready-to-use spatial-temporal rainfall information that can be applied by agricultural advisors, water resource authorities, and environmental planners. While the data itself is applied and tested for monitoring rain-fed agricultural systems, the abstract focuses entirely on academic validation and trend mapping, indicating no direct commercial product or private-sector pathway.
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This study investigates the spatial-temporal trends and variability of rainfall within East and South Africa (ESA) region. The newly available Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS-v2) gridded data spanning 37 years (1981 to 2017) was validated against gauge observations ( N = 4243) and utilised to map zones experiencing significant monotonic rainfall trends. Standardised annual rainfall anomalies revealed the spatial-temporal distribution of below and above normal rains that are associated with droughts and floods respectively. Results showed that CHIRPS-v2 data had a satisfactory skill to estimate monthly rainfall with Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE = 0.68 and a high temporal agreement ( r = 0.73) while also preserving total amount ( β = 0.99) and variability ( γ = 0.8). Two contiguous zones with significant increase in annual rainfall (3–15 mm year −1 ) occurred in Southwest Zambia and in Northern Lake Victoria Basin between Kenya and Uganda. The most significant decrease in annual rainfall (− 20 mm year −1 ) was recorded at Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania. Other significant decreases in annual rainfall ranging between − 4 and − 10 mm year −1 were observed in Southwest Tanzania, Central-South Kenya, Central Uganda and Western Rwanda. CHIRPS-v2 rainfall product provides reliable high spatial resolution information on amount of rainfall that can complement sparse rain gauge network in rain-fed agricultural systems in ESA region. The observed spatial-temporal trends and variability in rainfall are important basis for guiding targeting of appropriate adaptive measures across multiple sectors.
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DOI: 10.1007/s00704-018-2712-1
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