Livelihood vulnerability to climate change in Makueni County, Kenya

Abstract

• Makueni county is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts • Water scarcity and climate variability highly influence vulnerability in the county • Climate change adaptive capacity in the county is low • Most livelihoods depend on agriculture which is highly sensitive to climate change • Kibwezi sub-county is the most vulnerable to climate change Although Kenya's arid and semi-arid regions are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, very few studies have examined this vulnerability in depth. This study sought to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change in Makueni County, an arid and semi-arid region in Kenya's east. The study applied the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (LVI-IPCC) framework to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change in Makueni County, Kenya. Semi-structured questionnaires were used to collect cross-sectional primary data from a population sample of 400 household heads. Data on temperature and precipitation was obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department. The findings of the study indicate that Makueni County is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change (LVI = 0.305, LVI-IPCC = 0.036). Vulnerability in the county was majorly influenced by four main factors namely: water (vulnerability score: 0.375); natural disasters and climate variability (vulnerability score:0.368); livelihood strategies (vulnerability score:0.363); and food (vulnerability score: 0.331). When vulnerability for the sub counties were computed and compared, Kibwezi and Makindu sub counties were the most vulnerable (0.305 and 0.295, respectively) under the LVI approach while Makindu and Nzaui sub counties (0.035 and 0.032 respectively) were the most vulnerable under the LVI-IPCC approach. According to the Kruskal-Wallis H test, vulnerability was similar across the nine sub counties in Makueni county (p 0.05). These results serve as empirical evidence to guide the choice and implementation of future courses of action to reduce the risks associated with climate change. They provide a valuable basis for designing appropriate interventions and guiding policy decisions that address the specific vulnerabilities that households in the county confront. In particular, policymakers and actors at all levels of government (national county and sub-county) need to devise and implement context-specific strategies to improve water availability and food production. Furthermore, households need to diversify their livelihoods beyond farming in order to reduce climate-related losses. There is also a need for a robust early warning system for climate hazards to enable farmers prepare adequately for climate shocks.