Linear and Non-Linear Regression Methods for the Prediction of Lower Facial Measurements from Upper Facial Measurements

Abstract

Accurate assessment and prediction of mandible shape are fundamental prerequisites for successful orthognathic surgery. Previous studies have predominantly used linear models to predict lower facial structures from facial landmarks or measurements; the prediction errors for this did not meet clinical tolerances. This paper compared non-linear models, namely a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), a Mixture Density Network (MDN), and a Random Forest (RF) model, with a Linear Regression (LR) model in an attempt to improve prediction accuracy. The models were fitted to a dataset of measurements from 155 subjects. The test-set mean absolute errors (MAEs) for distance-based target features for the MLP, MDN, RF, and LR models were respectively 2.77 mm, 2.79 mm, 2.95 mm, and 2.91 mm. Similarly, the MAEs for angle-based features were 3.09°, 3.11°, 3.07°, and 3.12° for each model, respectively. All models had comparable performance, with neural network-based methods having marginally fewer errors outside of clinical specifications. Therefore, while non-linear methods have the potential to outperform linear models in the prediction of lower facial measurements from upper facial measurements, current results suggest that further refinement is necessary prior to clinical use.