Leveraging dry spells analysis to mitigate climate change risks on maize crop farming in Lake Victoria Basin, Kenya

Abstract

Effects of climate change in the Lake Victoria basin are demonstrated using dry spell analyses for the maize growing seasons. The aim of the study was to establish the temporal and spatial characteristics of dry spells on maize crop during the growing season and assess farmers’ adaptation approaches used to mitigate severe dry spells in the Lake Basin region, Kenya. The results were interpolated in ArcGIS 10 using ordinary kriging, with or without anisotropy, and severity zones for agricultural planning delineated. The results presented through both temporal and spatial techniques indicate that probability of dry spells occurrence increases with increase in dry conditions. The point specific analysis of agro-climatic parameters obtained is useful for agricultural planning. The region is important for grain production in Kenya hence the study has identified innovative adaptation approaches to enhance resilience to climate change effects. Suitable adaptation approaches identified for the region include conservation agriculture achieved through climate smart agriculture (supplemental irrigation, agroforestry, mixed cropping, rainwater harvesting, and growing drought resistant crops) and integrated soil fertility management. Upscaling the use of these approaches will increase resilience to climate change effects and unlock the agricultural production potential hence mitigate on food insecurity.