Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Using GIS, Analytical Hierarchy Process, and Artificial Neural Network in North-Western Tunisia

Abstract

Landslide susceptibility modelling represents an efficient approach to enhance disaster management and mitigation strategies. The focus of this paper lies in the development of a landslide susceptibility evaluation in northwestern Tunisia using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches. The used database covers 286 landslides, including ten landslide factor maps: rainfall, slope, aspect, topographic roughness index, lithology, land use and land cover, distance from streams, drainage density, lineament density, and distance from roads. The AHP and ANN approaches were applied to classify the factors by analyzing the correlation relationship between landslide distribution and the significance of associated factors. The Landslide Susceptibility Index result reveals five susceptible zones organized from very low to very high risk, where the zones with the highest risks are associated with the combination of extreme amounts of rainfall and steep slope. The performance of the models was confirmed utilizing the area under the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. The computed ROC curve (AUC) values (0.720 for ANN and 0.651 for AHP) convey the advantage of the ANN method compared to the AHP method. The overlay of the landslide inventory data locations of historical landslides and susceptibility maps shows the concordance of the results, which is in favor of the established model reliability.