article · Land
Analysis of the Matenchose watershed in the Rift Valley Basin tracks historical land use and land cover changes from 1991 to 2020 and models projections to 2050. Satellite imagery analysed using supervised classification showed a major shift from grassland, which covered 35 percent of the watershed in 1991, to cultivated land, which expanded to 36 percent in 2003 and 52 percent in 2020. Simulation modelling indicates that between 2020 and 2050, cultivated areas and settlements will expand further by over six percent each. Conversely, forestland is projected to decline by 63.76 percent and grassland by over 22 percent. Interviews with key informants confirmed that population growth and relocation drive these conversions. The expansion of cultivated land is linked to rising soil erosion, whereas maintaining forest and grassland covers helps mitigate soil degradation across the watershed.
Shifting land use directly impacts regional ecosystems, food security, and environmental stability. Tracking these changes reveals how agricultural expansion threatens critical habitats and accelerates soil erosion in the Rift Valley Basin. These predictive insights provide environmental authorities and watershed managers with evidence needed to develop targeted conservation policies, protect remaining forests, and mitigate severe soil loss caused by continuous cultivation.
The abstract describes an environmental assessment and predictive modelling study aimed at informing public land use policies rather than a commercial product. The methodology and resulting models could serve environmental consulting firms, regional planners, and natural resource managers seeking to assess soil degradation risks. This work represents an applied research framework that can be integrated into broader geographic information systems and spatial planning tools for watershed conservation.
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Land use and land cover change (LULC) is known worldwide as a key factor of environmental modification that significantly affects natural resources. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dynamics of land use and land cover in the Matenchose watershed from the years 1991, 2003, and 2020, and future prediction of land use changes for 2050. Landsat TM for 1991, ETM+ for 2003, and Landsat-8 OLI were used for LULC classification for 2020. A supervised image sorting method exhausting a maximum likelihood classification system was used, with the application using ERDAS Imagine software. Depending on the classified LULC, the future LULC 2050 was predicted using CA-Markov and Land Change Models by considering the different drivers of LULC dynamics. The 1991 LULC data showed that the watershed was predominantly covered by grassland (35%), and the 2003 and 2020 LULC data showed that the watershed was predominantly covered by cultivated land (36% and 52%, respectively). The predicted results showed that cultivated land and settlement increased by 6.36% and 6.53%, respectively, while forestland and grassland decreased by 63.76% and 22.325, respectively, from 2020 to 2050. Conversion of other LULC categories to cultivated land was most detrimental to the increase in soil erosion, while forest and grassland were paramount in reducing soil loss. The concept that population expansion and relocation have led to an increase in agricultural land and forested areas was further reinforced by the findings of key informant interviews. This study result might help appropriate decision making and improve land use policies in land management options.
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DOI: 10.3390/land11101632
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