Keeping the lights on: Assessing energy dynamics and electricity security in Uganda

Abstract

Electricity security in developing countries is a dual challenge; a conceptual controversy and a practical gap, characterized by unreliable supply systems. We analyze the energy dynamics influencing Uganda's electricity security using a securitization framework and a five-dimensional approach: system reliability, accessibility, affordability, sustainability, and quality of governance. Employing an Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Bounds test to cointegration, the short- and long-run effects of crude oil prices, electricity exports, renewable energy generation, distribution losses, energy intensity, and electricity consumption are estimated. In the short run, crude oil prices, renewable energy generation, and electricity consumption positively influence electricity security, while distribution losses have negative effects. Comparably, in the long run, crude oil prices, renewable energy generation, and distribution losses reduce electricity security, with energy intensity playing a positive role. Crude oil prices and distribution losses are the major threats across multiple dimensions of electricity security. For policy, enhancing fuel storage, technological advancements, integrating transmission and generation planning, and promoting energy efficiency, collectively, minimize distribution losses and bolster reliability of electricity supply. • Electricity security in developing countries is characterized by unreliable electricity supply systems. • Employed the securitization framework to identify the energy dynamics. • An Error Correction Model (ECM) was utilized to assess energy dynamics on electricity security. • Crude oil prices, renewable energy generation, and distribution losses reduce electricity security in the long run. • Integrating transmission and generation planning, and promoting energy efficiency minimize distribution losses and improve supply reliability.