Investigating Willingness to Shift to Formal Sustainable Public Transportation in Developing Cities: A Correlated Random Parameters Bivariate Probit Model

Abstract

Informal public transportation remains the backbone of urban mobility in many developing cities. While these systems offer flexible and affordable services, they are often associated with safety issues, unreliability, congestion, and environmental impacts. Consequently, transitioning travelers toward formal public transportation is a key objective for sustainable transport planning. This study investigates travelers’ willingness to shift from their current travel modes to a proposed Metro system in Alexandria, Egypt. The analysis uses stated preference data collected through interviews that presented respondents with multiple service scenarios. A correlated random parameters bivariate probit model with heterogeneity in means is estimated to capture interdependence between responses. The results reveal strong and statistically significant cross-equation error correlations, confirming that decisions are not independent and supporting the use of a joint modeling approach. Empirical results indicate that willingness to shift is influenced by socio-demographic characteristics, trip attributes, and current travel conditions. Female travelers are more sensitive to waiting time, while low-income and older individuals are less likely to shift across scenarios. Physical accessibility, especially walkability to and from stations, emerges as the most influential factor in encouraging adoption. These findings provide policymakers with actionable insights for designing inclusive, accessible, and sustainable public transportation systems.