Integrating drought indices and socio-ecological theory to analyze long-term drought impacts: A review of South Africa’s rural communities.

Abstract

Drought remains a pervasive environmental and socio-economic challenge across developing countries, with rural and semi-arid regions such as South Africa’s particularly vulnerable. In recent decades, climate variability has exacerbated the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts, prompting an expanding body of literature on resilience and adaptation. Traditional monitoring tools such as the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Streamflow Index, and NDVI provide valuable biophysical insights but often fail to capture the socio-economic dimensions that shape community vulnerability and response. This review explores the evolution and application of the socio-ecological systems (SES) framework in drought resilience research within developing contexts. The SES approach offers a holistic lens to understand the complex interplay between environmental stressors, livelihoods, governance, and social systems. Emerging literature highlights the growing use of SES yet also reveals persistent gaps including weak integration between quantitative climate data and qualitative social insights, limited longitudinal studies, and inadequate incorporation of local knowledge. Drawing on studies from sub-Saharan Africa and other Global South regions, this review synthesizes key trends, methodological advancements, and research gaps in SES-informed drought resilience. It underscores the need for interdisciplinary, participatory, and context-sensitive approaches to support equitable and sustainable adaptation strategies aligned with global frameworks such as SDG 13 and the Sendai Framework.