Integrated machine learning models for predictive analysis of thermal and electrical power generation of a photo-thermal system at Catania, Italy

Abstract

The Photovoltaic-Thermal (PV/T) system is designed for producing both electrical and thermal energy. Its efficiency is improved when temperature-sensitive PV cells are cooled using nanofluid coolants. However, the current models for predicting PV/T system performance with nanofluid cooling are limited. In order to fill this gap, this study aims to develop machine learning models to predict the electrical and thermal efficiencies of a water-based PV/T system. Three types of machine learning algorithms from the supervised learning method were selected in this study because of their ability to handle complex data and provide accurate predictions: the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) and the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM). Initially, the models are trained and validated using data consisting of 15,540 samples from a water-based PV/T system. On the basis of the results obtained, the MLP algorithm proved to be the best for the prediction of electrical energy, with an R 2 value = 0.9906, against 0.9709 and 0.99 respectively for the other GBR and LGB algorithms, while the LGB algorithm proved effective for the prediction of thermal energy, with an R 2 value = 0.983, against 0.983, 0.97 and 0.988 respectively for the GBR and LGB algorithms. Secondly, the best MLP and LGB models previously identified for the water-based PV/T system were adapted to predict, this time, the energy performance of an Ag/water nanofluid-based PV/T system. The results obtained show that these models are highly effective in predicting the electrical and thermal performance of the Ag/water nanofluid PV/T system, even in the absence of real data, making them very useful for real applications.