article · Water
Desert regions increasingly face shifting flood patterns caused by climate change and growing water demands. To assess flash flood hazards, an integrated hydrological modelling framework combined meteorological and morphological analysis with standard hydrological software to calculate peak flow, discharge volume, water depth, and velocity. The method was evaluated across the An-Nawayah and Al-Rashrash basins in southeastern Cairo, Egypt, areas subject to recent damaging floods. Simulations for 25-, 50-, and 100-year storm events established escalating runoff volumes across both basins, with the highest impact concentrated in areas closer to the Nile River mouth. Spatial analysis classified over half the study territory into high or extreme flood risk categories. To mitigate these hazards, the assessment proposes constructing five ten-metre-high dams to generate storage lakes, demonstrating how integrated hydrological modelling can directly inform flood protection schemes in arid catchments.
Flash floods in arid regions present severe risks to infrastructure and communities, compounded by shifting climate conditions. By accurately mapping flood depth, velocity, and runoff volumes, decision-makers can identify vulnerable zones before disasters strike. Establishing reliable predictive models allows regional planners to design targeted civil protection infrastructure, such as detention dams, transforming destructive floodwaters into managed water storage in water-scarce environments.
This modelling approach provides applied civil engineering and spatial planning methodologies for municipal authorities, water resource managers, and environmental consultancy firms. Operating at an applied and tested stage in southeastern Cairo, the framework is directly relevant to infrastructure planning in comparable arid watersheds. Commercial adoption would involve engineering firms using the data to design flood mitigation infrastructure, specifically five ten-metre-high storage dams to protect downstream assets.
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Flooding is a natural disaster with extensive impacts. Desert regions face altered flooding patterns owing to climate change, water scarcity, regulations, and rising water demands. This study assessed and predicted flash flood hazards by calculating discharge volume, peak flow, flood depth, and velocity using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-River Analysis System and Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) software. We employed meteorological and morphological data analyses, incorporating the soil conservation service (SCS) curve number method for precipitation losses and the SCS-Hydrograph for runoff transformation. The model was applied to two drainage basins (An-Nawayah and Al-Rashrash) in southeastern Cairo, Egypt, which recently encountered several destructive floods. The applied model revealed that 25-, 50-, and 100-year storms produced runoff volumes of 2461.8 × 103, 4299.6 × 103, and 5204.5 × 103 m3 for An-Nawayah and 6212 × 103, 8129.4 × 103, and 10,330.6 × 103 m3 for Al-Rashrash, respectively. Flood risk levels, categorised as high (35.6%), extreme (21.9%), and medium (21.12%) were assessed in low- and very-low-hazard areas. The study highlighted that the areas closer to the Nile River mouth faced greater flood impacts from torrential rain. Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods in assessing and predicting flood risk. As a mitigation measure, this study recommends the construction of five 10 m high dams to create storage lakes. This integrated approach can be applied to flood risk assessment and mitigation in comparable regions.
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DOI: 10.3390/w16020356
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