INTEGRATED CLEWS MODELLING FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY EXPANSION IN KENYA

Abstract

Kenya is currently facing challenges such as increasing energy demand, vulnerability of hydropower to climate change, unequal rural electrification, and slow adoption of clean technologies. To address these issues, a study utilized the CLEWS modelling framework to analyse strategies for enhancing energy efficiency and promoting renewable energy in an integrated resource planning approach. Two scenarios were evaluated; the Efficient Utilization of Energy Scenario (EUS), which aims to reduce industrial energy intensity by 15% by 2030, and the Renewable Energy Uptake Scenario (REU), which involves a 28% annual increase in solar PV installations until 2050.The analysis demonstrated that improvements in energy efficiency resulted in a significant decrease in overall energy demand, leading to increased generation capacity and reduced reliance on new renewable plants and mini-grids. The expansion of renewable energy sources reduced dependence on hydropower and diesel generation, improving resilience and reducing emissions. The combined approach of energy efficiency and renewable energy yielded the lowest long-term system costs and enhanced energy security. Based on these findings, the study recommended scaling up energy efficiency initiatives for industries and commercial sectors, prioritizing solar mini-grid investments in arid and underserved rural areas, and integrating CLEWS modelling into national and county planning processes to facilitate coordinated decision-making on water, land, and energy. This summary highlights the outcomes of the project developed during the CLEWS Modelling Workshop 2025.