Integrated approaches to map groundwater potential zones using AHP, GIS, and remote sensing in semi-arid region of Morocco: Case study from Khouribga area

Abstract

Growing water scarcity, driven by climate change, population growth, and expanding human activities, poses a critical challenge to arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. In Morocco, the Khouribga region illustrates this stress, where limited recharge, recurrent droughts, and intensive groundwater abstraction threaten long-term water security. To address these pressures, this study applied an integrated framework combining remote sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to delineate groundwater potential zones (GWPZ). Eight hydrogeological parameters, namely rainfall, lithology, slope, lineament density, drainage density, land use and land cover, distance to rivers, and potential evapotranspiration, were weighted through AHP and integrated using the Weighted Linear Combination method. The resulting map shows low (24.97 %), moderate (49.94 %), high (24.81 %) and very high (0.25 %) potential areas. Validation with 72 wells and boreholes achieved 83.33 % concordance and R 2 = 0.75, confirming model reliability. High-potential sectors in the north and northeast of Boujaad reflect favorable geological structures, fracture networks, and precipitation patterns. The results offer a practical basis for targeting drilling, designing artificial recharge systems, and protecting infiltration areas. Future work should incorporate higher-resolution hydrogeological data, extended climate series, and machine learning approaches to improve predictive performance and adaptability in other semi-arid contexts.