Information and communication technology and economic and productivity growth nexus in Nigeria: An evaluation of the role of governance quality

Abstract

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is widely recognised as a catalyst for economic advancement, yet its impact in developing economies like Nigeria remains complex and potentially mediated by the quality of governance. This study, therefore, investigates the impact of ICT on economic and productivity growth in Nigeria, with a specific focus on the moderating role of governance indicators. Utilising data from 1993 to 2024, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to analyse the short-run and long-run relationships. The findings reveal that the standalone expansion of ICT infrastructure, measured by mobile cellular and fixed telephone subscriptions, often has a negative or insignificant direct effect on both productivity and economic growth. However, the interaction between ICT and governance indicators yields critical insights: control of corruption significantly enhances the positive impact of ICT on productivity, while interactions with law and order and bureaucratic quality frequently present negative effects, suggesting a regulatory environment that withholds technology-led growth. The study concludes that the transformative potential of ICT in Nigeria is not automatic but is critically contingent upon institutional quality. Consequently, policy efforts must prioritise a synergistic approach that integrates digital infrastructure investment with comprehensive governance reforms (particularly in anti-corruption, legal modernisation, and bureaucratic efficiency) to unlock sustainable productivity and economic growth. The study contributes to existing literature by investigating the influence of governance indicators on the effect of ICT on productivity growth in Nigeria.