Industrialization and Youth Unemployment in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Approach

Abstract

This paper is an empirical investigation into the role of the industrial sector in curbing youth unemployment in Nigeria using time series data that covers the period 1991 to 2019. The data were subjected to unit root test using the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philip-Peron test techniques. THE data was analysed using the ARDL approach and Granger causality test. The result of the unit root test reported that the variables were integrated in mixed order of levels and first difference. This mixed order of integration necessitated the use of the ARDL Bounds test for cointegration. From the bounds test, there exist a long-run/levels relationship between youth unemployment and the explanatory variables. Also, the error correction term (-0.6215) showed that 62.15% of the short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually. The result further revealed that industrial output exerts a negative effect on youth unemployment both in the short-run and in the long-run. This implies that increasing the volume of industrial activities will reduce youth unemployment. The Granger causality test also showed that there exists causal relationship between youth unemployment and industrialization in Nigeria. The paper therefore recommended the need for boosting industrialization in Nigeria as it will curb massive youth unemployment in the country rather than advocating on entrepreneurship. This is because a strong industrial base will spring up more jobs than new ventures who are noted for folding up within few years of operations.