Income inequality, but not energy insecurity, dictates the adoption of residential solar energy technologies in South Africa: implications for renewable energy policy

Abstract

South Africa's severe energy crisis, characterised by persistent load shedding and rising electricity tariffs, has intensified interest in residential solar energy technologies (RSET). However, the uptake of solar energy technology remains low and potentially inequitable. This study investigates the socioeconomic and geospatial drivers of solar energy adoption in South African households to determine whether the transition is being shaped by energy insecurity or socioeconomic capacity. We extracted data from the General Household Survey covering 20,927 households. Data on the households’ demographics (i.e., household size and income, and age and gender of household head), residential characteristics (i.e., dwelling type and housing tenure), geographic location (i.e., province), energy security (i.e., frequency of load shedding) and the adoption of residential solar energy technology (i.e., installation of solar panels) were extracted. Then, we ran a binary logistic regression model to investigate the impact of demographics, residential characteristics, geographical location, and energy security on the likelihood of the adoption of RSET. We found that the odds of RSET adoption are higher in high-income households (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.05 – 1.09) and smaller households (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88 – 0.98). Interestingly, the frequency of load shedding, an indicator of energy insecurity, does not significantly predict RSET adoption. Given the recent incidences of load shedding, it was expected that the concomitant energy insecurity would drive the rapid adoption of RSET. However, income was found to be a stronger predictor of RSET than energy insecurity. This suggests that the energy transition in South Africa may not be driven by energy demand, but by payment ability, which may exacerbate "energy apartheid". These results reflect the vulnerability of low-income communities to rising energy insecurity, with key implications for residential and renewable energy policy.