article · The Science of The Total Environment
Satellite data from 1986, 2000, and 2017 analysed through a Random Forest algorithm reveals major land use and land cover shifts in the Afar Region of Ethiopia over a 31-year period. The alien tree species Prosopis juliflora expanded by 965,000 hectares, invading land at an annual rate of 31,127 hectares. Net gains were also observed in cropland, salt flats, settlements, and waterbodies. Conversely, significant reductions occurred in grassland, bareland, bush-shrub-woodland, and natural forests. Local representatives identified climate change, recurrent droughts, invasive species, and weakening traditional laws as key drivers of these dynamics. These ecological transformations generated an estimated average loss of 602 million US dollars in ecosystem service values, ranging from 112 million to 1.091 billion US dollars, impacting rural livelihoods across the region.
Rapid spread of invasive plant species combined with climate pressures can severely degrade pastoral and forest landscapes. Quantifying the economic value of lost ecosystem services demonstrates the financial and ecological toll of environmental degradation. These insights help resource managers and policymakers recognise the urgency of controlling invasive vegetation to safeguard rural livelihoods and critical natural resources.
The abstract does not indicate a commercial application pathway. However, the spatial mapping methodology and economic valuation figures provide early-stage analytical data that regional planners, conservation agencies, and development organisations can use to evaluate environmental degradation and prioritise invasive species management programmes.
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Land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics and the resulting changes in ecosystems, as well as the services they provide, are a consequence of human activities and environmental drivers, such as invasive alien plant species. This study assessed the changes in LULC and ecosystem service values (ESVs) in the Afar National Regional State, Ethiopia, which experiences a rapid invasion by the alien tree Prosopis juliflora (Swartz DC). Landsat satellite data of 1986, 2000 and 2017 were used in Random Forest algorithm to assess LULC changes in the last 31 years, to calculate net changes for different LULC types and the associated changes in ESVs. Kappa accuracies of 88% and higher were obtained for the three LULC classifications. Post-classification change analyses for the period between 1986 and 2017 revealed a positive net change for Prosopis invaded areas, cropland, salt flats, settlements and waterbodies. The rate of Prosopis invasion was estimated at 31,127 ha per year. Negative net changes were found for grassland, bareland, bush-shrub-woodland, and natural forests. According to the local community representatives, the four most important drivers of LULC dynamics were climate change, frequent droughts, invasive species and weak traditional law. Based on two different ESVs estimations, the ecosystem changes caused by LULC changes resulted in an average loss of ESVs in the study area of about US$ 602 million (range US$ 112 to 1091 million) over the last 31 years. With an increase in area by 965,000 ha, Prosopis-invaded land was the highest net change during the study period, followed by grassland (-599,000 ha), bareland (-329,000 ha) and bush-shrub-woodland (-327,000 ha). Our study provides evidence that LULC changes in the Afar Region have led to a significant loss in ESVs, with serious consequences for the livelihoods of the rural people.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.220
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