article · Journal of Cleaner Production
A ten-year study examining state-level data from 2011 to 2020 assesses how shifting weather patterns affect agricultural output and food security in Ethiopia. Focusing on four essential cash and food crops, namely barley, wheat, maize, and sorghum, the research employs productivity functions and Ricardian modelling approaches. The results confirm that agricultural productivity across the country is vulnerable to climatic shifts and variations in rainfall, directly endangering the food security of rural communities. Among the crops analysed, sorghum and barley emerge as the most heavily affected by meteorological changes. Furthermore, fluctuations and losses in barley yields play a critical role in driving food insecurity. To address these vulnerabilities, the analysis advocates specific policy interventions and practical adaptation strategies to protect agricultural yields and safeguard vulnerable rural populations against worsening climatic conditions.
Climate-driven changes in weather and rainfall directly disrupt food production systems, particularly in regions dependent on seasonal farming. Identifying which essential crops suffer the heaviest losses helps development agencies and policymakers prioritise interventions. Understanding these specific vulnerabilities is crucial for designing targeted adaptation measures that protect rural livelihoods and ensure consistent food supplies under increasingly unpredictable meteorological conditions.
The findings can inform agricultural adaptation strategies, decision-support tools, and policy planning for government agencies and agricultural development organisations. While the work provides empirical economic models highlighting vulnerable crops such as barley and sorghum, the abstract does not describe a tested technology or commercial product, placing this research at an early, analytical stage that requires practical translation before deployment in field operations.
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This study investigates the influence of climate change on agriculture productivity and food security in the context of Ethiopia. We use 2011–2020 state level data set of four major seasonal crops of Cash and Food in Ethiopia, namely, barley, wheat, maize, and sorghum. Methodologically, we apply the productivity function and the Ricardian approaches in the modelling for simulating the association of climate change with agriculture productivity. This study documents the interconnectedness among changes in climate, security of food and agriculture, indicating how the prior changes bring the latter kind of alterations. In general, agriculture in Ethiopia is prone to changes in climate and variations in the levels of precipitation, posing threats to food security of the rural population. The specific findings of this study highlight sorghum and barley as the majorly impacted stable crops through changes in meteorology. Furthermore, the study shows that barley production has vital contribution to causing insecurity of food in Ethiopia. The study ends with recommending some policy prescriptions and adaptation methods for mitigating the detrimental effects of climate change on production of agriculture and security of food in Ethiopia.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141793
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