article · Scientific Reports
Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection combined with COVID-19 can cause more severe liver complications than HBV infection alone. A compartmental mathematical model evaluates the transmission dynamics of this co-epidemic alongside four time-dependent control strategies. Qualitative analysis confirms the non-negativity and boundedness of model solutions, determines effective reproduction numbers, and verifies the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, whilst also identifying backward bifurcation phenomena. Using optimal control theory through Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, the framework evaluates the combined influence of targeted interventions. Numerical simulations validate these mathematical results. The findings establish that deploying protective measures, COVID-19 vaccination, and medical treatments simultaneously offers the most effective approach for curbing the spread of both infections across communities.
Understanding how concurrent viral outbreaks interact is critical for healthcare planning. Because COVID-19 exacerbates liver disease in patients already living with chronic hepatitis B, public health authorities require clear guidance on intervention strategies. Mathematical assessments of optimal controls demonstrate how combining preventative measures, vaccination, and treatment can minimise disease burden and better protect vulnerable populations during overlapping epidemics.
This theoretical modelling work represents early-stage research that could inform healthcare policy or public health decision-support software. Potential end users include public health agencies, epidemiologists, and healthcare planners designing intervention programmes. However, because the study is limited to mathematical formulation and numerical simulations, it remains distant from real-world clinical or commercial application, and the abstract indicates no direct commercialisation pathway.
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Different cross-sectional and clinical research studies investigated that chronic HBV infected individuals' co-epidemic with COVID-19 infection will have more complicated liver infection than HBV infected individuals in the absence of COVID-19 infection. The main objective of this study is to investigate the optimal impacts of four time dependent control strategies on the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic transmission using compartmental modeling approach. The qualitative analyses of the model investigated the model solutions non-negativity and boundedness, calculated all the models effective reproduction numbers by applying the next generation operator approach, computed all the models disease-free equilibrium point (s) and endemic equilibrium point (s) and proved their local stability, shown the phenomenon of backward bifurcation by applying the Center Manifold criteria. By applied the Pontryagin's Maximum principle, the study re-formulated and analyzed the co-epidemic model optimal control problem by incorporating four time dependent controlling variables. The study also carried out numerical simulations to verify the model qualitative results and to investigate the optimal impacts of the proposed optimal control strategies. The main finding of the study reveals that implementation of protections, COVID-19 vaccine, and treatment strategies simultaneously is the most effective optimal control strategy to tackle the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic spreading in the community.
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DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-55111-8
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