Impacts of land use and cover change on ecosystem services in the Andit Tid watershed, Ethiopia

Abstract

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) significantly impact ecosystem services and biodiversity in the highlands of Ethiopia. This study was conducted in the Andit Tid watershed, the central highland of Ethiopia. It aimed to analyze historical LULC shifts and their effects on ecosystem services while predicting future changes using ArcGIS, Remote sensing, IDRISI Selva, and geospatial datasets (DEM, Landsat imagery, TEEB database). The findings revealed a major transformation from 1985 to 2023, with bushland and cultivated land declining by 36.4% and 28.2%, respectively, while forest and bare land expanded by 110.6% and 75.8%. These changes increased the ecosystem service value from USD 147,880.4 to USD 180,737, driven mainly by regulatory and provisioning services. Future projections indicate a 50.6, 5.2, and 35.2% decline in forest land, grasslands, and bare land by 2050, alongside a 34.9% and 56.8% rise in cultivated land and bushland. Consequently, the ecosystem service value is expected to decrease to USD 147,540, a net loss of USD 33,196.7. Strategic land use planning should integrate ecosystem service valuation into decision-making, strengthen regulations, and promote sustainability to mitigate these impacts. Future research should focus on continuous LULC monitoring, biodiversity impacts, climate interactions, and socioeconomic drivers. Enhancing predictive models will support policymakers in selecting sustainable land use strategies.