Impacts of Conflict and Weather Shocks on Food Security of Arable Farmers in Nigeria: Evidence from World Bank High-Frequency Phone Surveys

Abstract

This research examines the separate and combined effects of weather and conflict shocks on household food security of arable farmers in Nigeria, utilizing nationally representative high-frequency survey data alongside geospatial indicators of conflict and climate. A treatment effect model was utilized to estimate the causal impact of weather shocks on food security, while addressing selection bias. The findings indicate that households subjected to adverse weather events experienced an average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) of 5.28 additional HFIAS points relative to non-exposed households, signifying a notable deterioration in food security. A multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR) model was utilized to better capture heterogeneity in multiple shock exposures. Research indicates that households experiencing simultaneous weather and conflict shocks endure the most significant welfare losses, with an average increase of 5.31 HFIAS points compared to those not affected by such shocks. Coping strategies are primarily characterized by consumption-smoothing and asset liquidation, with minimal adoption of adaptive practices. The research highlights the combined susceptibility of rural households to climate and conflict-related stressors. Policy responses must prioritize the expansion of climate-smart agriculture, the fortification of social protection systems, and the promotion of conflict-sensitive interventions to improve resilience in vulnerable and unstable regions.