Impacts of Artificial Lakes and Land Use Land Cover Changes on Precipitation and Temperature Patterns in the Omo Gibe Basin: A WRF Model-Based Analysis

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed to investigate the impact of artificial lakes and land use changes on the local microclimate in the Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. Two scenarios, “Predam” (2001) and “Postdam” (2015), were simulated to represent land use conditions before and after the introduction of artificial lakes, respectively. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Fifth Generation Reanalysis (ERA5) dataset provided initial and boundary conditions. The t-test for mean differences and the F-Test for Variability were utilized to analyze variances within the “Predam” and “Postdam” scenarios. Model performance was validated against data from the Wolaita Sodo Station. Maximum temperature predictions were satisfactory, with MAE, RMSE, PBIAS, and Correlation values of 2.55, 2.88, − 8.25%, and 0.83, respectively. Minimum temperature predictions were acceptable, with MAE, RMSE, PBIAS, and Correlation values of 1.34, 1.55, 6.62%, and 0.71, respectively. However, precipitation predictions exhibited lower accuracy, with MAE, RMSE, PBIAS, and Correlation values of 55.18, 73.65, − 26.75%, and 0.71, respectively. Notably, observed average precipitation increased from 98.36 mm in “Predam” to 102.63 mm in “Postdam”. The “Postdam” scenario suggests potential impacts on local moisture levels due to the presence of artificial lakes. Minimum temperatures rose in the “Postdam” context, highlighting the role of land use changes and artificial lakes in climate dynamics within the Omo Gibe Basin. Analyzing mean and standard deviations of maximum temperatures revealed a slightly higher mean for “Predam” (30.976 °C) than “Postdam” (29.45 °C) and a larger standard deviation (2.043 vs. 1.88). This study demonstrates the intricate interplay between artificial lakes and land use changes, showcasing their influence on climate dynamics in the Omo Gibe Basin, Ethiopia, resulting in altered precipitation, increased minimum temperatures, and subtle shifts in maximum temperature patterns.