Impact of Climate Change on Culex pipiens Mosquito Distribution in the United States

Abstract

Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) is a disease vector for the West Nile virus (WNV). Climate change impacts the disease transmission carried by mosquitoes, and it is partly to blame for the resurgence of mosquitoes as important disease vector insects. This study assessed the geographic range of Culex pipiens in the United States under both present and projected climatic scenarios, identifying the primary environmental factors influencing its distribution. Employing species distribution modeling (MaxEnt, Version 3.4.1) and occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, we examined the effects of key variables, including altitude, temperature seasonality (bio4), and annual precipitation (bio12), on habitat suitability for C. pipiens. The analysis revealed that altitude accounted for 60.3% of the model’s explanatory power, followed by temperature seasonality (31%) and annual precipitation (8.7%). Areas having low elevation and moderate temperature fluctuations were the most favorable for C. pipiens, with a predicted range extending across the Midwest and southeastern United States under present variables. Future projections for 2050 and 2070 under Representative Concentration Pathway (climatic change) scenarios suggest possible northward expansion in response to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. The study highlights some shifts in C. pipiens distribution and the potential for increased disease transmission into new areas. This study serves as a catalyst for decision-makers to coordinate their management reaction and create more resilient and comprehensive strategies to safeguard human health.