Impact of climate and demographic changes on the vegetation of the M’goun Geopark UNESCO of Morocco (1984-2021)

Abstract

The primary goal of this study is to identify changes in the vegetation cover of the geopark M’goun region of Morocco, as a sample area to track the Moroccan vegetation status, and the crucial factors that influenced its evolution between 1984 and 2021. The NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) method has been used, combined with supervised classification manipulated with the Google Earth Engine and through statistical analysis using R, together with field trips and Google Earth records for supervised classification. The percentage of vegetation density, made up of oak groves, Matorrals, red juniper, and thuja, in addition to a highly biodiverse cover, displays a declining trend. Medium-cover vegetation decreased by 29.5%, dense vegetation decreased considerably by 70.9%, and low-cover vegetation saw a minimal decline of 0.02%. As a result, dense and medium vegetation are being replaced by bare lands or poor-quality cover formed by sparse plants and solitary trees. In addition, precipitation increased slightly, showing an irregular trend, with average minimum and maximum temperatures rising by +1.7°C and +1.4°C, respectively. Furthermore, the population increased by 84.47%. Statistical analysis showed that the most important parameters affecting medium and dense vegetation cover are temperatures (Tmin and Tmax) and population density, as evidenced by the strong correlation between them. In contrast, sparse vegetation cover showed less correlation due to its heterogeneity. However, precipitation played a minimal role in vegetation evolution. Change detection maps revealed a significant negative impact on vegetation cover. This degradation was localized in the southern part of the area of study, where, according to the demographic density map, the majority of the population resides. Deforestation continues due to the lifestyle and economic activities of the local population. These factors, combined with climate change, are exerting large-scale pressure on the forest throughout the geopark.