Impact of anthropological activities on land-use and land-cover changes in the lower Okavango Delta, Botswana

Abstract

Anthropogenic land alterations in Maun village have transformed natural vegetation into urban infrastructure, including pavements, and residential and commercial areas, leading to elevated Land Surface Temperature (LST). This urban expansion resulted from economic growth driven by population increase and tourism-related development. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCCs) and LST. Utilising Landsat 5-TM and Landsat-8 data from 1990, 2000, and 2020, we employed a random forest algorithm for supervised classification, generating Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps. The mono-window algorithm was used to extract LST data from Landsat 5 and 8 images, alongside Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps. s regression analysis assessed the LST-NDVI correlation. Results indicate that urban LULCCs significantly contribute to rising LST. Minimum and maximum LST values for 1990, 2000, and 2020 were 18.6°C, 22.8°C, 22.6°C, and 26.7°C, 34.5°C, and 42.1°C, respectively. NDVI values ranged from −0.2 to 0.56 in 1990, −0.17 to 0.58 in 2000, and 0.07 to 0.46 in 2020. Roads, pavements, barren land, and built-up areas displayed the highest LST (44.6°C), while water bodies and healthy vegetation exhibited the lowest (16.1°C). Additionally, NDVI exhibited a negative correlation with LST. Our findings emphasise the role of human activities in exacerbating LST. They highlight the need for regulated urban growth patterns to ensure sustainable development. Moreover, quantifying spatiotemporal variations in LULC, LST, and NDVI holds importance for conserving land resources and enhancing land use planning policies. Policymakers and city planners can utilise this research to mitigate heat stress effects and promote sustainable urban environments by evaluating distribution maps of LULC, NDVI, and LST.