article · Journal of Water and Climate Change
ABSTRACT This research aimed at the study of climate change effects on the hydrology of the Borkena watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model driven by three different Global Circulation Models under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios was used. The mean annual maximum and minimum temperature projected to increase by 0.56 and 0.31 °C, respectively. The study also resulted in a considerable average monthly and seasonal rainfall changes both in magnitude and direction. Relative to the baseline period, the changes in mean annual streamflow from 2021 to 2080 are mostly negative and indicate a reduction in the volume of discharge available in the Borkena River. In addition, trends in the extreme flow are also determined for high and low flows and the results show a forceful negative trend for extreme streamflows, and flood volumes may decrease by 43.1% in RCP4.5 under MPI (2021–2040), 38.6% (2041–2060), and 49.4% (2061–2080) in RCP8.5 under IPSL and MIROC5, respectively.
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DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2025.024
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