Hybrid modeling approach for precise estimation of energy production and consumption based on temperature variations

Abstract

This study introduces an advanced mathematical methodology for predicting energy generation and consumption based on temperature variations in regions with diverse climatic conditions and increasing energy demands. Using a comprehensive dataset of monthly energy production, consumption, and temperature readings spanning ten years (2010-2020), we applied polynomial, sinusoidal, and hybrid modeling techniques to capture the non-linear and cyclical relationships between temperature and energy metrics. The hybrid model, which combines sinusoidal and polynomial functions, achieved an accuracy of 79.15% in estimating energy consumption using temperature as a predictor variable. This model effectively captures the seasonal and non-linear consumption patterns, demonstrating a significant improvement over conventional models. In contrast, the polynomial model for energy production, while yielding partial accuracy (R² = 0.65), highlights the need for more advanced techniques to fully capture the temperature-dependent nature of energy production. The results indicate that temperature variations significantly affect energy consumption, with higher temperatures driving increased energy demand for cooling, while lower temperatures affect production efficiency, particularly in systems like hydropower. These findings underscore the necessity for integrating sophisticated models into energy planning to ensure resilience in energy systems amidst climate variability. The study offers critical insights for policymakers to optimize energy generation and distribution in response to changing climatic conditions.