How Do IFRS S2 Climate Risks Affect IAS 36 Impairments? A Constructive Accounting Framework Calibrated to European Steel

Abstract

A major connectivity gap arises from the misalignment between the forward-looking climate disclosures required by IFRS S2 and the historically rooted asset valuations mandated by IAS 36. This misalignment can cause the overvaluation of carbon-intensive assets and disrupt capital allocation decisions. This research specifically examines transition risks, such as carbon pricing, regulatory shocks, and technological disruption, and quantifies the financial externality using a combination of deterministic impairment testing and stochastic climate scenarios. We create a constructive framework and develop a model of a Synthetic Representative Firm, calibrated to major integrated steel producers in Europe. To generate nonlinear Green Swan shocks for Value-in-Use, the process combines Monte Carlo simulation with the Merton Jump-Diffusion model. This comparison shows the difference between the steady Management View and the volatile Market View. Empirical results reveal a material Sustainability Discount, representing a substantial erosion in the recoverable amount under IFRS S2 transition risk scenarios compared to the IAS 36 Deterministic Baseline. Simulations show a strong probability of asset stranding due to restricted cost pass-through, indicating that older assets may face elevated impairment risks under disorderly transition scenarios. Traditional deterministic models may not fully capture aspects of Double Materiality, potentially leaving balance sheets less responsive to transition risks. Integrating digitalization and the Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) framework presents a strategic method for averting value destruction. Therefore, this research supports the integration of stochastic transition risk modeling into impairment testing to achieve faithful financial representation.