How climate information services are associated with multidimensional food security through adaptation bundles in Ethiopia using nonlinear mediation analysis

Abstract

This study examines whether the relationship between climate information services (CIS) and multidimensional food security operates through adoption of climate adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in northeastern Ethiopia. Using cross-sectional data from 385 households, we construct a multidimensional CIS index (access, quality, trust, utilization) validated through second-order confirmatory factor analysis. Adaptation strategies are conceptualized as five mutually exclusive practice bundles based on the empirical finding that crop management (C) serves as a universal foundation. Households are classified as: non-adoption, C only, C with livelihood diversification (C + L), C with soil/water management (C + S), or comprehensive bundle combining all three (C + L+S). No household adopted soil/water or livelihood practices without also adopting crop management. Given the multinomial mediator and ordered outcome, we employ generalized structural equation modeling with KHB decomposition. Three key findings emerge. First, CIS is positively associated with adoption of bundles that include soil/water management (C + S and C + L+S) but shows no significant association with livelihood diversification in the absence of soil/water (C + L). Second, controlling adaptation bundles, CIS has no direct association with food security. Third, the pattern is consistent with full mediation through adaptation pathways that include soil and water management; pathways excluding soil/water generate no significant food security improvements. Sensitivity analyses indicate robustness to unobserved confounding. Findings suggest CIS is associated with improved food security exclusively through complementary adaptation adoption. Policy implications emphasize integrating CIS within sequenced support packages that establish soil/water foundations before layering additional practices.