Household wealth and timing of first birth among highly educated women in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from survey-adjusted survival analysis

Abstract

Introduction Female education is widely recognized as an important factor associated with fertility decline, yet fertility transitions in sub-Saharan Africa remain uneven. This study examines whether household wealth is associated with the timing of first birth among women who have already attained higher education. Methods The analysis uses recent Demographic and Health Surveys from thirty-four countries (2010-2024) and a pooled sample of 17,336 highly educated women. Survey-adjusted Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards models (Cox, Weibull, Gompertz) are applied to assess socioeconomic gradients in first-birth timing. Regional patterns are compared across Southern, Eastern, Western, and Central Africa. Results The survival curves reveal clear socioeconomic gradients: by age 25, more than half of women in the poorest quintile have had a first birth, compared with only about one third of those in the richest quintile. Cox, Weibull, and Gompertz models consistently show that women in lower wealth quintiles have higher hazards of first birth (19% higher for richer, 28% for middle, 42% for poorer, and 33% for the poorest women relative to the richest). These patterns remain robust across model specifications. Regional analyses show that the gradient is strongest in Southern Africa, moderate in East Africa, and more compressed in West and Central Africa. Discussion The findings indicate that even among highly educated women, household wealth remains strongly associated with fertility timing, independently of formal schooling. The study extends the 'diverging destinies' framework by showing that socioeconomic stratification persists within highly educated groups, underscoring the relevance of wealth inequality and economic insecurity alongside educational expansion in shaping fertility patterns.