Heat on fragile wings: evaluation of the risk of extinction of the Egyptian endemic butterfly Satyrium jebelia (Nakamura 1975) due to climate change

Abstract

Climate change poses significant risks to endemic mountain butterflies, particularly those in isolated arid refugia. We assessed the extinction risk of Satyrium jebelia, Egypt’s only endemic butterfly, found in high-altitude habitats (1,800–2,400 m) in the Saint Catherine Protectorate, Sinai Peninsula. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling with 12 georeferenced occurrence records and five bioclimatic variables, we projected habitat suitability under two climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Our model achieved an AUC of 0.99, identifying the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (52.8% contribution) and precipitation of the driest quarter (39.9% contribution) as key factors in species distribution. Currently, S. jebelia occupies less than 5% of the Sinai Peninsula, with suitable habitat highly fragmented. Climate projections indicate a 50% habitat loss by 2050 and near-total extinction by 2070 under high-emission scenarios (RCP 8.5). Even under moderate warming (RCP 2.6), significant contractions are expected, with viable habitats limited to a few refugial areas. Given a projected 80% population decline over three genera, we recommend evaluating S. jebelia for Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List and implementing urgent conservation measures, including ex-situ breeding and population monitoring.