Global and regional disparities in the burden of disease and risk factors between pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Abstract

Despite their substantial global health impact, there has been no systematic and comprehensive evaluation of the epidemiological patterns and risk factors of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer worldwide. This study aimed to quantify and compare epidemic indicators and their changing trends by sex, age group, and socio-demographic status from 1990 to 2019. We extracted data on pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer from the 2019 the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. The data of incidence, prevalence, morbidity, mortality, burden and age-standardized rates of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were collected. Risk factors contributing to the burden of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were estimated using the comparative risk assessment framework. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per 100,000 person-years were 34.8, 29.3, and 44.4 for pancreatitis, compared with 6.4, 5.1, and 6.5 for pancreatic cancer, respectively. The incidence and prevalence of both pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were higher in countries with a high Socio-demographic Index (SDI). For both conditions, incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs were higher in men than in women. According to multivariate analysis, alcohol consumption (OR = 1.24, p = 0.01), body mass index (OR = 2.37, p = 0.02), total cholesterol (OR = 1.66, p < 0.001), and hypertension (OR = 1.26, p = 0.013) were significantly associated with prevalence of pancreatitis. For pancreatic cancer, alcohol consumption (OR = 1.58, p = 0.001), total cholesterol (OR = 1.97, p < 0.001), and hypertension (OR = 1.35, p = 0.019) were significantly associated with prevalence. Pancreatitis exhibited a greater incidence, prevalence, and DALY burden, whereas pancreatic cancer carried a disproportionately higher mortality burden. Modifiable risk factors – including alcohol consumption, smoking, BMI, obesity, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia were strongly associated with both conditions, underscoring the need for targeted prevention strategies and improved disease management to reduce the global burden.