GIS-based assessment of economically feasible off-grid mini-grids in Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract Mini-grids (MGs) have emerged as a cost-effective solution for electrifying remote communities characterized by low population density and challenging geographical conditions. However, identifying optimal locations for sustainable MG deployment is complex due to technical, social, and economic factors. This study aims to identify economically feasible sites for renewable MGs in Ethiopia using the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET). This GIS-based framework systematically integrates key variables such as resource availability, population density, land cover, terrain slope, and proximity to existing infrastructure, using an equal weighting scheme across two grid proximity scenarios: 2.5 and 25 km from existing medium-voltage (MV) lines. To assess economic feasibility, the study calculated the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for the selected sites. The results show that hydro MGs are the most cost-competitive option, with LCOE values between 0.09 and 0.16 $/kWh. Under the 2.5 and 25 km grid proximity scenarios, 306 and 84 potential hydro MG sites are identified, capable of electrifying approximately 5 and 1.9 million people, respectively. Solar PV MGs also demonstrate significant potential, with LCOE values ranging from 0.15–0.22 $/kWh. Solar MGs could electrify 7.2 million people under the 2.5 km scenario and 3.2 million under the 25 km scenario. Wind MG, with LCOE values ranging from 0.12–1.75 $/kWh, could provide electricity to 4.8 million people under the 2.5 km scenario and 3.1 million under the 25 km scenario. This study provides a pre-feasibility roadmap for MG deployment, informing policymakers and investors to prioritize sustainable rural electrification in Ethiopia.